Friday, February 22, 2013

I am not a democrat, I am not a republican, I am eclectic; if you are a value investor, you are suffering from behavior bias



I have no political affiliation or bias. I only try to predict the markets and the world.  But in today’s world, e.g., Democrats in the U.S. have much better economic policies than Republicans.  If you still do not see what the right economic policies are for the US to recover, you should look at the data and facts. If you still do not believe it, you must be close minded or mind deaf. The fundamental problem of today’s world is lack of demand. That is something you have to understand before you can predict market. The policies that Republicans only know are to cure lack of supply. I will not be pretentious and appear balanced but will pick up Republican for their wrong-headed policies. However, if one day, Republicans have much better economic policies, I will support their policies instead of those of Democrats.

In essence, this debate is the same hopeless as I had when I was trying to persuade people before the crisis came that crisis was coming and before the severe quant underperformance that quants will severely underperform. People insist on their prior and cannot be eclectic about the world, or investment.

Take another example, if you self claim to be a value investor, you suffer from a severe syndrome of behavior bias. Investing is like fighting. The goal is to win, not about which style you use. Bruce Lee will never care about which style he uses; he uses all the styles. If you stick to one style, you are predictable and you have known weakness, and you will surely fail one day.

If you understand one big issue against successful investing is behavior bias, then you should have an open mind and open heart to look at facts and evidence instead of insisting on your style or political views. Investing is about getting rid of all these crap.

1 comment:

  1. A recent article in Advisor Perspectives entitled "Maybe Smart Money . . . Isn't So Smart" describes the research done by Scott Stewart, a former institutional fund manager and now finance professor, using data from Effron PSN. Ascenergy

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