I have no political
affiliation or bias. I only try to predict the markets and the world. But in today’s world, e.g., Democrats in the
U.S. have much better economic policies than Republicans. If
you still do not see what the right economic policies are for the US to recover,
you should look at the data and facts. If you still do not believe it, you must
be close minded or mind deaf. The fundamental problem
of today’s world is lack of demand. That is something you have to understand
before you can predict market. The policies that Republicans only know are to cure lack of supply. I will
not be pretentious and appear balanced but will pick up Republican for their
wrong-headed policies. However, if one day, Republicans have much better economic
policies, I will support their policies instead of those of Democrats.
In essence, this debate is the same hopeless
as I had when I was trying to persuade people before the crisis came that
crisis was coming and before the severe quant underperformance that quants will
severely underperform. People insist on their prior and cannot be eclectic
about the world, or investment.
Take another example, if you self claim
to be a value investor, you suffer from a severe syndrome of behavior bias. Investing
is like fighting. The goal is to win, not about which style you use. Bruce Lee
will never care about which style he uses; he uses all the styles. If you stick
to one style, you are predictable and you have known weakness, and you will surely
fail one day.
If you understand one big issue against
successful investing is behavior bias, then you should have an open mind and
open heart to look at facts and evidence instead of insisting on your style or
political views. Investing is about getting rid of all these crap.
A recent article in Advisor Perspectives entitled "Maybe Smart Money . . . Isn't So Smart" describes the research done by Scott Stewart, a former institutional fund manager and now finance professor, using data from Effron PSN. Ascenergy
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