I have
told my students all the time that there is one thing on China’s side because
Japan is already at the tech frontier, whereas China can still bring up per
capita GDP even if working age population or total population shrinks. That
could still bring China’s overall GDP to positive growth even with population
shrinks, even if the huge gravity of shrinking working age population. But that
also requires China to release its human capital to allow and facilitate its
citizens to gain access to information and pursue their own ambitions.
Currently a large part of this system is not there and the system is actually
getting worse. So it is possible for China to get stuck at mid income as well.
Lower income never means higher growth; it means potential for higher growth
;=).
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