Might I have been a tad too optimistic?

Some of my friends ask the above question. I would say yes and no. Yes in the sense that I may have interpreted what the central banks with eventually do to be what they will do the next few months. Even the central banks may eventually go full force to unlimited QE, maybe with an inflation target, like I have argued since at least 2010, it may take quite a while during which their resolves will be seriously tested. No in the sense that I never think the risk on and off period is over and I would hold my current position for a long long time (I could for most of the trades, but that is not without suffering a lot volatility in between).

For example, is it possible that long term T bond could rise sharply in price? Yes of course. Any of the risk events that I mentioned in the last email, and many I was not able to mention, will leave to that, and that could happen in the next few months. So be flexible in your philosophy or religion of investing and be prepared for more risk on and offs.