Friday, September 7, 2012

Some more legs for the markets


Have been quiet for a while. Partly very busy, partly due to the uncertain nature of the Fed QE. Having said that global central banks will start QE soon on July 27, which is positive news for the markets, it is very uncertain what they will do specifically. It is a good surprise that ECB has done QE in the form of vaguely defined unlimited bond buy for short term bonds of peripheral countries, which naturally boost up the markets. However, what ECB can eventually do will depend on their testing of boundaries under the resistance from Germany. Today’s employment news for the U.S. should substantially increase the likelihood of the Fed for further QE in September, which is likely the last chance that the Fed would do QE before the election. So there are probably more legs for the markets, even though the good news should have been fully prices; the markets always overshoot.

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