A check and update of the long term predictions made in February 2022 one year later：Everything playing out exactly as predicted

 1.       Nasdaq and S&P will drop 40-50% from its recent peak over the next few years. The other global markets will also drop a similar amount. Maybe the bear market could eventually end around the 2025 inauguration. But if the US falls into a civil war kind of panic and reality, hell will be in sight.

Update: Nasdaq already dropped by more than 35% and S&P by more than 25% at some point in 2022. They are in a bounce right now. If this bounce last until at least the end of Q3 2023, or even the end of Q1 2024, Nasdaq could eventually drop by about 70% and S&P by about 50%.

2.      US is likely to have a recession in late 2023 or 2024. The recession will be relatively mild in terms of employment and output.

Update: So far the recession hasn’t come yet, as I predicted, despite of most everyone having predicted the recession happening in 2022!

3.      Some of the current darling stocks will drop very substantially. For example, can you imagine Tesla at around or below $200 again?

Update: at the adjusted prices, my prediction was that Tesla would have dropped to about $65. Tesla has dropped to about $100 from more than $400 already, surprising most people. I stand by the $65 target.

4.      USD has not peaked yet but is close to its peak. After peaking, it will fluctuate at a high level for a couple years before a very significant leg down lasting many years. So don’t bet that it will go down or go down soon.

Update: USD rallied by more than 15% in 2022, as I predicted, which surprised most people. It has dropped a lot from the peak but I expect it to rally at least once more, exactly as I have been predicting.

5.      Gold will slump from this level too but will get out of the slump before all the other assets. The time of its bottom could be in 2023. It will likely have a strong bull market from there, appreciating many times. Gold companies will take longer to bottom, say another year after gold bottoms.

Update: Gold has dropped about 20% from 2000s to 1600s in 2022, as predicted, but has bounced to close to the all time high in 2023. It will probably drop again to at least 1800s and maybe even 1600s before the long term rally.

6.      US housing bull market from 2011 is only about half done. It will go up slowly for a few years and then up sharply for some more. So prepare for about another 10 years of US housing bull market and a price appreciation of a similar amount of what we had since 2011.

Update: US housing market did not tank at all and let’s wait for its eventual sharp upturn as predicted.

7.      Chinese housing market and stock market will hold up a bit better than the rest of the world for a little longer. Just holding on there, unlikely to go beyond its prior peaks. Then they will likely have a very serious slump that will not end until say 5 years later.

Update: Chinese housing market and stock markets are fluctuating but haven’t gone beyond the prior peaks as predicted. Let’s wait for their long term slumps.

8.     Hong Kong stock markets look extremely cheap to most people but will drop at least 50% from its peak in 2018. It could drop 2/3 from that peak too in extreme cases. If it does drop that extremely, it is probably wise to load up the assets if it still has a somewhat independent future.

Update: HK stock market already dropped by more than 50% from its peak. After the current sharp bounce, Hang Seng will drop by about 2/3 from that peak, which will be close to 11,000 to 12,000.

9.      Commodities will also be among the last to slump in this cycle but it will have a pretty bad slump too. It could be the most lucrative investment opportunity among all for the many years after the slump is over.

Update: Commodities have been holding up very well but have started the slump somewhat. The slump will continue and the buying opportunity hasn’t started until they are much lower.

10.  Value will significantly outperform growth in the next 10 years. Quant funds will do relatively better too.

Update: Value has already outperformed growth significantly in 2022. This trend will continue as predicted.