对未来几年的预测以及对长期市场的一些思考: 一年之后的回顾;所有都如预测的演绎

 1.       未来几年，纳斯达克和标准普尔将从最近的高点下跌 40-50%。其他全球市场也将下降类似的幅度。也许熊市最终可能会在 2025 年美国总统就职典礼前后结束。但如果美国陷入内战的那种恐慌和现实，地狱才是底。

更新：纳斯达克指数在 2022 年的某个时候已经下跌了 35% 以上，标准普尔指数已经下跌了 25% 以上。它们现在正处于反弹之中。 如果这种反弹至少持续到 2023 年第三季度末，甚至 2024 年第一季度末，纳斯达克指数最终可能下跌约 70%，标准普尔指数最终可能下跌约 50%。

2. 美国很可能在2023年底或2024年出现衰退。衰退在就业和产出方面将相对温和。

更新：到目前为止，经济衰退还没有到来，正如我预测的那样，尽管大多数人都已经在2022年预测经济衰退会在 2022 年发生！

3. 一些当前的投资宠儿将大幅下跌。例如，你能想象特斯拉回到 200 美元左右或以下吗？

更新：按照调整后的价格，我当时的预测是特斯拉会跌至 65 美元左右。 特斯拉已经从 400 多美元跌至 100 美元左右，这已经让大多数人感到惊讶。 我继续跌到 65 美元的目标。

4. 美元尚未见顶，但已接近见顶。在达到顶峰后，它将在几年内处于高位波动，然后开始持续多年的非常显著的下跌。所以接下来一两年不要打赌它会下跌或很快下跌。

更新：正如我预测的那样，美元在 2022 年上涨了 15% 以上，这让大多数人感到惊讶。 美元已经从峰值下降了很多，但我预计它至少会再次反弹，正如我一直预测的那样。

5. 黄金也会从这个水平下跌不少，但会在所有其他资产之前摆脱低迷之前重新上涨。它到底的时间可能在 2023 年。从那里它可能会开始一个强劲的牛市，升值很多倍。黄金公司将需要更长的时间才能触底，比如在黄金触底后一年。

更新：正如预测的那样，黄金在 2022 年从 2000多下跌了超过20% 至 1600多，但在 2023 年反弹至接近历史高位。在长期反弹之前，它可能会再次跌至至少 1800 多甚至 1600多。

6. 从2011 年开始的美国房地产牛市到现在只完成了大约一半。它还会在接下来几年内缓慢上升，然后再急剧上升好几年。因此要为美国还有 10 年的房地产牛市做好准备。接下来的涨幅可能与 2011 年以来类似的涨幅一样大。

更新：美国房地产市场基本上没有下跌，让我们等待它最终如预期的上涨。

7. 中国房市和股市接下来一年可能会比世界其他地方好一点点。但是只是坚持在那里波动，不太可能超越之前的价格高点。然后他们可能会经历一次非常严重的熊市，从现在起至少 5 年后才会结束。

更新：中国房地产市场和股市仍在波动，但像预期的那样没有超过之前的峰值。 让我们等待他们的长期低迷。

8. 香港股市对大多数人来说看起来极其便宜，但将从 2018 年的峰值下跌至少 50%。在极端情况下，它也可能从峰值下跌 2/3。如果它确实大幅下降，而且如果它仍然有一个稍微独立的未来，那么它可能是一个非常明智的投资选择。

更新：港股已较高峰下跌逾50%。 经过本轮的大幅反弹后，恒指将从原来高位回落约2/3，最终底部接近11,000至12,000点。

9. 大宗商品将是这个周期中最后一个开始下跌的，而且也将出现相当糟糕的下跌。但是一旦经济衰退结束后，这可能是那之后的许多年里最赚钱的投资机会。

更新：大宗商品一直表现良好，但开始有所下滑。 下跌将继续，直到价格低得多，买入机会才开始。

10. 价值型股票将在未来 10 年显著超过成长型股票。量化基金也会相对比基本面投资基金做得更好。

更新：价值在 2022 年的表现已经显着优于成长。这一趋势将如预期的那样继续下去。

A check and update of the long term predictions made in February 2022 one year later：Everything playing out exactly as predicted

 1.       Nasdaq and S&P will drop 40-50% from its recent peak over the next few years. The other global markets will also drop a similar amount. Maybe the bear market could eventually end around the 2025 inauguration. But if the US falls into a civil war kind of panic and reality, hell will be in sight.

Update: Nasdaq already dropped by more than 35% and S&P by more than 25% at some point in 2022. They are in a bounce right now. If this bounce last until at least the end of Q3 2023, or even the end of Q1 2024, Nasdaq could eventually drop by about 70% and S&P by about 50%.

2.      US is likely to have a recession in late 2023 or 2024. The recession will be relatively mild in terms of employment and output.

Update: So far the recession hasn’t come yet, as I predicted, despite of most everyone having predicted the recession happening in 2022!

3.      Some of the current darling stocks will drop very substantially. For example, can you imagine Tesla at around or below $200 again?

Update: at the adjusted prices, my prediction was that Tesla would have dropped to about $65. Tesla has dropped to about $100 from more than $400 already, surprising most people. I stand by the $65 target.

4.      USD has not peaked yet but is close to its peak. After peaking, it will fluctuate at a high level for a couple years before a very significant leg down lasting many years. So don’t bet that it will go down or go down soon.

Update: USD rallied by more than 15% in 2022, as I predicted, which surprised most people. It has dropped a lot from the peak but I expect it to rally at least once more, exactly as I have been predicting.

5.      Gold will slump from this level too but will get out of the slump before all the other assets. The time of its bottom could be in 2023. It will likely have a strong bull market from there, appreciating many times. Gold companies will take longer to bottom, say another year after gold bottoms.

Update: Gold has dropped about 20% from 2000s to 1600s in 2022, as predicted, but has bounced to close to the all time high in 2023. It will probably drop again to at least 1800s and maybe even 1600s before the long term rally.

6.      US housing bull market from 2011 is only about half done. It will go up slowly for a few years and then up sharply for some more. So prepare for about another 10 years of US housing bull market and a price appreciation of a similar amount of what we had since 2011.

Update: US housing market did not tank at all and let’s wait for its eventual sharp upturn as predicted.

7.      Chinese housing market and stock market will hold up a bit better than the rest of the world for a little longer. Just holding on there, unlikely to go beyond its prior peaks. Then they will likely have a very serious slump that will not end until say 5 years later.

Update: Chinese housing market and stock markets are fluctuating but haven’t gone beyond the prior peaks as predicted. Let’s wait for their long term slumps.

8.     Hong Kong stock markets look extremely cheap to most people but will drop at least 50% from its peak in 2018. It could drop 2/3 from that peak too in extreme cases. If it does drop that extremely, it is probably wise to load up the assets if it still has a somewhat independent future.

Update: HK stock market already dropped by more than 50% from its peak. After the current sharp bounce, Hang Seng will drop by about 2/3 from that peak, which will be close to 11,000 to 12,000.

9.      Commodities will also be among the last to slump in this cycle but it will have a pretty bad slump too. It could be the most lucrative investment opportunity among all for the many years after the slump is over.

Update: Commodities have been holding up very well but have started the slump somewhat. The slump will continue and the buying opportunity hasn’t started until they are much lower.

10.  Value will significantly outperform growth in the next 10 years. Quant funds will do relatively better too.

Update: Value has already outperformed growth significantly in 2022. This trend will continue as predicted.

Long term T bond has bottomed for this cycle

TLT is the liquid tool. Last, this, and next week are likely the best buying time. The next asset to bottom should be gold, and that would be near the end of this year.

2023, the year of sideway markets

We are likely still in a long term bear market trend. However, 2023 is probably a year of sideway stock markets, with the current market level somewhat in the lower middle of range.

One possible path is a drop from early February, a strong rally in the spring followed by a big drop, especially for tech stocks, and then a bounce. Stock indexes could have a positive return this year, especially the Chinese markets, depending on the timing of the sideway markets. Commodities and value stocks should relatively outperform again.