Here are some of the readings from my blog with their links.
These include pretty much all the predictions I made about asset prices from
2011. Before that I was working in the asset management industry and cannot
publicize my view. I will show some graphs from page 8 of this document about
my investment track record before 2011. More educated readers can check the
asset prices under prediction against the TIMING of my predictions to see
whether and how the predictions are profitable if they are interested. Inside China, you need climb the Great Fire Wall,
because it is on a google server.
这里是一些我的博客的链接和我做预测后资产价格的变化。可以按链接读我的博客。投资者可以看到这些交易盈利任何。由于博客在谷歌的服务器上，从中国国内读我的博客需要翻樯。另外，因为博客是用英文写的，如果要中文翻译，我可以发给你。这些博客包括了几乎所有我从2011年开始对各种资产价格的预测。在此之前，由于我在资产管理行业工作，我不能公开宣传我的观点。我将从这个文件的第7页开始展示一些图表来显示我在2011年之前的投资业绩记录。
Case 1. Prediction on the
major macro trends in the next five years from summer 2011. I recommend
buying US stock indexes and short emerging market stock index and metals. I presented
in my first class in HKUST in late August 2011 and then in many international
conferences. /我在2011年的夏天预测的未来五年全球的主要的宏观趋势。我建议购买美国股票指数和做空新兴市场股票和金属。我在2011年八月底在香港科技大学教的第一堂课开始讲这些预测，并其后在许多国际会议上讲过。
Case 2. Prediction of the
dramatic change of market direction worldwide in the summer of 2012：Buy the assets with the highest
perceived risks at the time. Other than the following secondary market assets,
I also suggested buying Greek tourism related real estate when everyone else is
panicking. Although Greece GDP has shrunk more than 20% in the last few years,
the only industry with consistently positive growth is tourism. / 在2012年夏天我预测的全球市场走向的巨大变化：买被大家当时认为风险最大的资产。除了以下二级市场的资产，我还建议在大家恐慌的时候购买希腊的与旅游相关的房地产。尽管希腊的GDP在过去的几年里缩水超过20％，唯一有持续正增长的行业是旅游业。
Case 3. Prediction about 2014
on Feb 6, 2014. I recommended increasing exposure to SP500 and emerging
market indexes. Note that how much SP500 and emerging market index have gone up
since early February 2014. / 我在2014年02月06日建议增加SP500和新兴市场指数。从下图可以看到SP500和新兴市场指数已自2014年2月初已经上涨了多少。
SP500
Emerging market ETF from Blackrock: EEM
Case 4. Prediction about
China’s real estate markets. So far
in 2014, housing prices in the 2nd and 3rd tier cities
have dropped by about 30%. /我对中国的房地产市场的预测。到目前为止，在2014年，二，三线城市的房价约下降30％。
Case 5. Prediction about
Australia in the summer of 2012：Short
Aussie dollar, buy banks and commercial real estate in Sydney harbor /我在2012年夏天对澳大利亚的预测：做空澳元，购买银行股和在悉尼海港的商业地产
Case 6. Market timing: The
following list includes the date and the title of the blog. When I say risk on,
buy an index future. When I say risk off, short two index futures to cover the
prior buy position and create a net short position. When I say risk on again,
buy two index futures to cover the prior short position and to create a net buy
position. The returns for the risk-off periods in red in the following graph
have been reversed by adding a negative sign before the returns, i.e., if the
returns in the graph are positive for risk-off periods, it means the actual
market indexes actually drop by that amount in risk-off periods. The returns
for the risk-on periods in blue are kept as was, i.e., if the returns in the
graph are positive for risk-on periods, it means the actual market indexes
increase by that amount in risk-on periods.
市场择时：下面的单子包括我关于市场方向预测的博客的日期和标题。当我说风险开放，买一个股指期货。当我说风险规避，卖两个指数期货，以覆盖先前买入的头寸，并创建一个净空头头寸。当我再一次说风险开放，买了两个股指期货来覆盖之前的空头头寸，并建立一个净买入的头寸。在下面的图表我们已经在红色的风险规避时段的回报前面加了一个负号。也就是说，如果在红色的风险规避时段图中的回报为正，这意味着市场指数在这些时段实际上是下降的。我们没有改变蓝色的风险开放时段的回报的符号。即如果图中蓝色的风险开放时段的回报为正，这意味着市场指数在这些时段增加。
q Risk
Off; HSI = 24K /风险规避，恒生指数 = 24K
q Risk
On; HIS = 18K; /风险开启，恒生指数 = 18K; -33.3%
n November 9, 2011:
Italian job; 意大利危机
q Risk
Off; HSI = 20K; /风险开启，恒生指数 = 20K; +11.1%
n January 2,
2012: The rally is on; 反弹继续
q Risk
On; HSI = 18.5K; /风险开启，恒生指数 = 18.5K; -8.1%
n March
2, 2012: It is time to lighten up risk; 减仓风险
q Risk
Off; HSI = 21.2K; /风险规避，恒生指数 = 21.2K; +14.6%
n June
15,
2012: Like always, if all the central banks are about to take out the big
gun, follow the flow of the crowd；所有的央行都将有大动作.跟着大家走
q Risk
On, HSI = 19.0K; /风险开启，恒生指数 = 19.0K; -11.6%
n September
15,
2012: The first milestones in turning the tide around; still
underappreciated by markets；扭转颓势的第一个里程碑，但仍然被市场低估
q Risk
Keeps On, HSI = 20.8K； /风险持续开启，恒生指数 = 20.8K
n February
22, 2013: Hold on to your stocks；抓紧你的股票
q Risk
Keeps On, HSI = 22.8K；/风险持续开启，恒生指数 = 22.8K
n May 29, 2013:
This rally has legs；这次牛市将持续更长
q Risk
Keeps On, SP500= 1648; /风险持续开启，标普500 = 1648; +18.4%
n December
31, 2013:
q Risk
Keeps On, SP500 = 1846; /风险持续开启，标普500 = 1846; +12.0%
Case 7. The account that I consecutively managed for 12 years* / 我连续管理12年的账户
In more than 2/3 of the years, this account beats SP500.
Please pay attention to the outperformance in both the crash of internet bubble
(SP500 dropped 31%) and the Great Financial Crisis (SP500 dropped 37%). It
shows that I saw both coming to a large extent. Even in the depth of the
financial crisis in March 2009, the cumulative returns since my account
inception are 100% on my account, 30% for Buffett, and -40%.for SP500. Since
this account uses the strategy of medium term asset allocation, there will be no
capacity constraint until the fund reaches more than USD 20 billon. Given the
various investment constraints on this account, once released to allow
investments in a broad universe and various financial instruments, the returns
can be much higher.
在三分之二以上的年份，这个帐户回报击败标普500。请注意在互联网泡沫（标普500跌31％）和全球2008金融危机（标普500跌37％）的两个市场崩溃中的出色表现。这表明我在很大程度上预测了这些危机。即使在全球金融危机最恐怖的2009年3月，从我的账户成立以来，我的账户的累计回报率是100％，巴菲特是30％，标普500是-40％。由于该帐户使用中期资产配置的策略，直至本基金超过200亿美元，不会有容量限制。由于在这个帐户有不少的投资限制，一旦去掉大部分限制而允许投资广泛的资产类别和各种金融工具，得到的回报可能更高。
*XL is my account. Real-money, stand-alone single account;
after transaction costs; no leverage or shorts, annual return calculated by
Fidelity; part time investing on my own
*XL 是我管理的帐户。真钱；独立单个账户; 扣除交易成本;
无杠杆或做空；富达基金计算的年回报率；一己之力，兼职投资
Case 8. U.S. real estate investments/投资美国房地产
I saw the U.S. housing bubble bursting in 2007 and sold even
my own personal residence that year. I rented for 4 years and start to buy U.S.
properties since 2011 and now own many U.S. properties.
我在2007年看到了美国房地产泡沫破灭，做那年甚至卖掉自己的个人住所。我租了4年房子，然后开始自2011年购买美国物业，到2012年已拥有许多美国房地产。
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