“Bought a lot Japanese stocks today” is
what I wrote to my global macro investment class in the days after Japanese
stock markets experienced the big one day drop last week. The Japanese
officials seem a bit confused intellectually though now the markets have gone
their way for a while. I usually do not make too short term a bet. But I still
believe those guys will smart up in the end and keep doing what they are doing.
The rest of my money are still in US
small cap or small cap value, and I bought as much as I can. As I said last September,
this
rally will have a long leg and lots of returns. I confirmed
and advocate more buying in February. I hope you have enjoyed the ride. If you
are trying to sell in May and go away this year, you will be the sore loser.
Going forward, the rally still has a
couple of months to go. After that, it will stall and turnover around the end
of this year. As I
have discussed in February, China will have another round of slowdown,
Europe will suffocate itself a bit more by then again (but will relax before
and after that), US austerity drive will have more visible impact on the
economy. However, if you believe the long term predictions of mine, that will
be a good time to buy more U.S.
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