So the
centralist won the Greek election, which will commit the country to
unsustainable policy by default. Even though
markets cheer for now, which should not be too strong after the huge burst
today given that the central banks have no clear reason to intervene, markets
should understand this would set up the eventual exit of Greece from the
Eurozone, and there will be no return from here. Syriza will watch on the sidelines until the
current government fails under the unsustainable policy. With the economic deterioration and bank runs
from now to then, as well as the return to primary surplus of Greece in early
2013, it will make the exit from the Eurozone a viable and attractive (in
relative terms) option. However, history
has shown that the Greek exit from the Eurozone will set up the greatest investment
opportunity in the last three years (rather than investing in bubbles in
emerging markets). I am dreaming about
the day when Spain will fall out of the Euro bed ;=).
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