Sunday, June 17, 2012

There will be no return


So the centralist won the Greek election, which will commit the country to unsustainable policy by default.  Even though markets cheer for now, which should not be too strong after the huge burst today given that the central banks have no clear reason to intervene, markets should understand this would set up the eventual exit of Greece from the Eurozone, and there will be no return from here.  Syriza will watch on the sidelines until the current government fails under the unsustainable policy.  With the economic deterioration and bank runs from now to then, as well as the return to primary surplus of Greece in early 2013, it will make the exit from the Eurozone a viable and attractive (in relative terms) option.  However, history has shown that the Greek exit from the Eurozone will set up the greatest investment opportunity in the last three years (rather than investing in bubbles in emerging markets).  I am dreaming about the day when Spain will fall out of the Euro bed ;=). 

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