So the
centralist won the Greek election, which will commit the country to
unsustainable policy by default. Even though
markets cheer for now, which should not be too strong after the huge burst
today given that the central banks have no clear reason to intervene, markets
should understand this would set up the eventual exit of Greece from the
Eurozone, and there will be no return from here. Syriza will watch on the sidelines until the
current government fails under the unsustainable policy. With the economic deterioration and bank runs
from now to then, as well as the return to primary surplus of Greece in early
2013, it will make the exit from the Eurozone a viable and attractive (in
relative terms) option. However, history
has shown that the Greek exit from the Eurozone will set up the greatest investment
opportunity in the last three years (rather than investing in bubbles in
emerging markets). I am dreaming about
the day when Spain will fall out of the Euro bed ;=).
Since my ideal investment product is a global macro quantitative equity fund, this blog is about global macro analysis and calls, as well as how to implement these insights in quantitative equity investments.
Sunday, June 17, 2012
Friday, June 15, 2012
Like always, if all the Central Banks are about to take out the big gun, follow the flow of the crowd
The
crowd always listens and tries to start a party. This might be initially offset
partially by the uncertain outcome of Greek election and the subsequent
bargaining between Greece and Germany. That could set up the buying opportunities
when markets dip occasionally. Or if you were brave enough to short since April,
now is the opportunity to cover your shorts before markets go up a bit from
here. Among the central banks, the U.K. is likely to ease soon. The U.S.
probably will have to wait till July with only some Twist type of actions in
June. ECB will stand by with some bond buying but a new round of LTRO will be a
long shot. Maybe no market rally leading into Greek election would have been a better
thing for markets; that way, we will get more stimulus, which sets up for a
bigger rally.
But the
Eurozone issue will come back soon enough, even if Greece is unlikely to leave
Eurozone this year (and most likely the next year). It will also be even more
difficult for China to hide the strong side effect of its imbalanced growth. By
the end of this year, we probably will have another bout of shakeup when
markets start to forget how painful it could be by being overly optimistic. To avoid
some partisan accusation / perception, the Fed may not be as forthcoming if
things start to drift down again before the election.
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