未来2-5年资产价格预测

这些是我在2025年3月和4月撰写的预测。今天我补充了一句关于目前黄金和黄金股回调的看法。所有今年初预测趋势目前都保持不变，并将继续保持不变。我原本打算在发布预测之前写一些详细的解释，但我一直没时间。与其无限期地等待下去，我决定现在就发布这些预测。

 

请注意，许多预测与我自2011年以来的长期预测相反。这些2011年来的长期预测是否仍然有效，将取决于美国如何走出这个变幻时代。我对此感到悲观，但也许美国人这次最终也能做出正确的选择。

 

A. 中国很可能会在特朗普任期结束前尝试拿下台湾（70%的可能性），并控制住最先进的芯片制造商。方法是对台湾实施禁运和海上管制。中国很可能会成功。因此，任何对中国市场有较大敞口的外国公司都将面临风险（例如，AAPL、TSLA）。先进芯片和稀土等商品的价格将会飙升（MP、CRML、METC、AREC）。即使中国不攻占台湾，中国与美国以及西方国家的分裂也将成为现实。中国的崛起是全球化的结果。但中国的崛起也与全球化不兼容，并且正在为全球化掘墓。

B. 中国股市将出现大幅上涨，涨幅将超过以往任何高点。新兴市场也将出现大幅上涨，结束自2011年以来美国股市和美元的主导地位。我正是在2011年预测了美国股市的上涨和新兴市场的巨大落后表现。虽然我自2011年以来一直长期看好印度，但在这次上涨中，我更看好巴西（ETF：EWZ）。

C. 至少在未来几年内，将会出现一段快速通胀时期。石油价格（在经历一次下跌之后）以及工业金属和贵金属的价格可能会大幅上涨，金属和石油生产商的股价也将随之上涨。新兴市场的此类生产商将尤其受益，但像CLF这样的美国生产商也会受益。

D. 全球利率将随着时间的推移而上升，而且可能会大幅上升。

E. 美元将大幅贬值。

F. 黄金价格将超过每盎司10,000美元。“我预见到了目前十月的调整，金价可能会从接近4400美元跌至至少3500美元，而包括AEM在内的黄金矿业公司的股价在本次调整结束前可能会下跌一半。”（括号中的内容是我在2025年10月23日添加的。）不过，未来几年可以继续持有AEM的股票。

G. 美国房价将在今年达到顶峰，但跌幅可能不会像2006-2011年那样剧烈。

H. 美国股市很可能会出现更加巨大的泡沫，随后可能会出现经济衰退和熊市（估计要2027年），股市很可能将在特朗普任期结束前或结束后不久大幅下跌。

I. 由于通货膨胀和货币幻觉，股票和房价的名义跌幅可能不会那么大。但从实际价值来看，跌幅可能会更加惨重。

The asset price forecasts for the next 2-5 years

These are the forecasts that I wrote back in March and April 2025. I do add one sentence about the current correction of gold and gold stocks. All the trends have been and will be intact. I thought to write detailed explanations before I post the forecasts. But I never had the time. Instead of waiting forever, I will post the forecasts now. 

Note that many of the predictions will go opposite to my long term forecasts since 2011. Whether those long term forecasts are still valid will depend on how America emerges from this changing era. I am pessimistic about it but maybe Americans can get it right eventually this time as well.

 

A.     China will probably try to take over Taiwan (70% chance), along with the most advanced chip producer, by embargoing it before Trump’s term ends. Most likely China will succeed. So any foreign companies with sizable exposure to Chinese market are vulnerable (e.g., AAPL, TSLA). The prices for things like advanced chips and rare earth will shoot up (MP, CRML, METC, AREC). Even if China doesn’t take over Taiwan, the split between China and the US as well as the West will become reality. China’s rise is a result of globalization. China’s rise is also incompatible with globalization and is digging the grave for globalization.

B.     China’s equity will also have a sharp upward rally going beyond any previous peaks. Emerging markets will also have a sharp upswing, ending the dominance of the U.S. stocks markets and US dollar from 2011, which was when I predicted the upswing of the U.S. stock markets and the huge underperformance of emerging markets. Although I have been long term bullish on India from 2011, I would prefer Brazil in particular in this upswing (ETF: EWZ).

C.     In the next couple years at least, there will be a period of fast inflation. Oil prices (after a dip) and prices of industrial and precious metals will likely go up a lot, along with the stock prices of metal and oil producers. Such producers in emerging markets will benefit particularly, but US producers such as CLF would too.

D.    Interest rates will go up over time globally, probably by a lot.

E.     USD will depreciate substantially

F.     Gold will go above $10,000 a troy ounce. “I have seen the current correction coming and gold price will probably drop from almost 4400 to at least 3500, and gold miners’ stock prices including AEM’s could drop by half before this correction is over.” (I added what’s in the parenthesis on October 23, 2025) One can keep holding AEM for the next couple years though.

G.    U.S. housing price in the U.S. will peak this year, but it may not crash as hard as the 2006-2011 period.

H.    U.S. will likely have a large stock market bubble, then probably a recession along with a bear market with stock market dropping substantially before or soon after Trump’s term ends. 

I.       The stock and housing prices may not drop as much in nominal term due to inflation and monetary delusion. In real terms, they may look much more terrible.