Here is a list of macro predictions that I made two years
ago with a five year horizon. I posted them in Sept 2011 but I have told many
already early that year, and also stated in my very first class in UST (a HKD 8
million student investment fund class). http://xlpartners.blogspot.com/2011/09/on-money-so-far-and-longer-term-5-year.html
n China
will face sharp slow down in growth for years within five years (could drop
from 10% to as low as 3%)
n Related
emerging markets and commodity producers will suffer as well.
n HK’s
housing price will drop substantially, but China much more
n Chinese
people may not suffer that much and the world will not end when China slows
down
n Eurozone
will not survive in the current form
n The
U.S. will become stronger in relative terms if it can get the political act
together
Please see more detailed description here.
Short term timing is harder. But I have been lucky so far in
the last two years. Please see the risk on and off timing marked at the titles
of my blog entries with the level of Hang Seng (have switched to SP500 as I
stated recently in March).
n April
10, 2011: Predict deflation scare later in the year;
q Risk
Off; HSI = 24K
n August
4, 2011: Deflation scare is in full force;
q Risk
Off; HSI = 22K
n October
12, 2011: Bear rally;
q Risk
On; HIS = 18K
n November
9, 2011: Italian job;
q Risk
Off; HSI = 20K
n January
2, 2012: The rally is on;
q Risk
On; HSI = 18.5K
n March
2, 2012: It is time to lighten up risk;
q Risk
Off; HSI = 21.2K
n June
15, 2012: Like always, if all the central banks are about to take out the big
gun, follow the flow of the crowd
q Risk
On, HIS = 19.0K
n September
15, 2012: The first milestones in turning the tide around; still
underappreciated by markets
q Risk
Keeps On, HSI = 20.8K
n February
22, 2013: Hold on to your stocks
q Risk
Keeps On, HSI = 22.8K
n May
29, 2013: This rally has legs
q Risk
Keeps On, S&P500= 1648
Now S&P500= 1792; I hope you have listened and have not missed boat.
